At a Semi Industry Strategy Symp (ISS) Int Business Strategies (IBS) presented a forecast for the semiconductor industry until 2020. i-Micronews reports on this event here.

“IBIS predict that cost/gate is now increasing and thus is no longer an economic driver (for same wafer size) to move to the next node.”
Interesting graph that shows that 28nm is the cheapest node ever (per gate) and will probably stay so unless 450mm wafers will make a difference. As we all know 450mm has been delayed again, meaning 28nm will probably be the dominating node for a long time to come.

The report concludes:

“IBIS further predicts that:
– 28nm will have long lifetime ( Probability 80% )
– 20nm yields will improve, and will be high volume technology node in 2015 and 2016 (Probability 50%)
– 16/14nm will provide low cost gates and support high bandwidth interfaces in SoC environment (Probability 20% in 2016 and 50% in 2017)
– 10nm will likely be postponed, cost per gate will be prohibitive and unclear as to demand other than high speed processors and FPGAs (Probability 90%).”

According to IC Insights’ ranking of the leading IC foundries, “… the top 13 foundries in the figure represented 91% of total foundry sales in 2013. For comparison, the leading 13 foundries accounted for 84% of total foundry marketshare in 2009, the year before Samsung dramatically ramped up its IC foundry production for Apple.”